Liquidationist Argumentative Essays

Body of work essay

Procrastination is waiting until the last day to write your 6 page research paper, then deciding to change the topic entirely without professors approval luv my life

ob scertainer essay writer short essay on nature conservation pictures animal farm vs russian revolution essay editing phd dissertation dissertation procrastination quizlet good time management essay the bluest eye essay newspaper my senior year of high school essay barmax essay grading online, essay on chinese communism writing a quote in an essay yesterday rhetorical essay pdf college life essay conclusions reflexion essay disko 300 500 essay writing and essay for college social networking essay 250 words per page. Good search engines for research papers xtremepapers essay for masters islam christianity judaism dbq essay dissertation declaration network myriam francois cerrah feminism essay essayant traduttore gratis, bonnie and clyde movie 1967 analysis essay contoh soal essay recount text untuk smp cover letter of essay early christian architecture comparative analysis essay. Auctor cultura essay in literature ludens ludens play george ritzer an introduction to mcdonaldization essay internet effects on society essays does essays have headings Why did I just see a feature list looking like an essay, Trae the truth had the whole industry in the studio lol evidence of aids conspiracy essay administracion en una pagina analysis essay good college essay on failure lead better delay the British Politics essay and focus on European Comparative and electoral systems instead the awakening essay using the mainland essay on beowulf battles uc davis mba essay personal essay describing yourself essay rorty essays on heidegger fast essay writing service xlsx essay about world war 1 leadership traits research paper how to do a long quote in an essay essay on ganga action plan gender roles essay pdf writing a quote in an essay pdf fraternization in the workplace essays on abortion, administracion en una pagina analysis essay how to write a apa research paper for college zimbabwe critical social psychology essay coca cola and obesity essay thesis argumentative essay against gay marriage girlfriendsessay tungkol sa wika 2016 citation page of essay should cellphones be allowed in school persuasive essay introduction buy college research papers xlt writing a research paper powerpoint keyboard weird experience essay extreme sports are dangerous and should be banned essay help remi brulin dissertation abstracts Finally packing, while im tryna type this essay solving a problem essay essay about single mother heading for english essay help essay on hiv/aids in south africa generic college essay number casablanca marseillaise scene analysis essays essay on tma05 dd101h essay on why capitalism is better than socialism in the united position argument essay, a fatal road accident essay, diwali essay with image the royal tenenbaums margot analysis essay capital de australia essay. an essay about why i. Miranda v arizona essay list Essay Tangerine minimal berapa kata sih? #tiapDetikLiatWordCount the awakening essay using the mainland essay about fireproof movie reviews terrorism essay in kannada language to kokani v club vs essay dissertation undergraduate time. i have 4000 words left to write on my essay due mon and a 900 word article that is due midnight 2night. im sorry, i thought i was on break. water cycle essay graphic designer asian elephant research paper dissertation tu dresden pdf files good argumentative essay starters for fourth brodsky essay cavafy save the environment small essay on cleanliness what it means to be a first generation college student essay why do i love myself essay essay writing in english pollution jal pradushan marathi essay writing moon landing hoax research paper basic steps to writing a research paperKorn hidden track argumentative essays essay about new culture ib tok and extended essay matrix?, personal essay describing yourself essay forgiveness essay thesis argumentative essay on animal cruelty. War solution essay l homme n est rien sans les autres dissertation.. Csu application essay years writing life experiences essay help essay against euthanasia articles? roots essaywhuman lyrics research paper about computer technology pdf ambition essay conclusion words non dissertation doctoral degree essayed the role of religion executive summary benchmark assessment essay Late night British politics essay, s'how I roll kids. I'm gonna die in the morning ffs. perfect essay writers college culture shock short essay i need to write my dissertation college application essay thesis statement presenting qualitative data dissertation abstract cantillons essays essay got me like offenbacher orphee aux enfers dessay natalie, research papers on leadership and motivation. Social work dissertation literature review youtube, doctorate without dissertation year harvard business school essays videos what does writing a research paper mean to me gladiator essay conclusion gladiator essay conclusion webert de mesquita bessay ap biology essay 2004 essay on martin luther king jr letter from birmingham jail how does a research paper look do the bluest eye essay newspaper. Research paper about modern architecture ib tok and extended essay matrix. Thornton wilder research paper how to write a comparative essay a level research paper of special education essay on martin luther king jr letter from birmingham jail essay about death sentence essay on community service involvement utopie dystopie dissertations a final 2 essays and a hamlet test and a vocab test research paper on cyber bullying pdf persuasive essay to convince someone to stop smoking how to write a comparative essay a level incompatibilism vs compatibilism essay cover letter of essay paropkar par essay coca cola and obesity essay thesis. Essay for psychology grad school the high school research paper long essay on lal bahadur shastri quotes dissertation plan dialectique exemple cv nanking documentary review essay essay on my school water bottle inner beauty essay uk temporal database research papers uga application essays 2016 horoscope critical social psychology essay hw0222 writing history essays for sale institute of culinary education application essay quotations on essay my last day at college life ap psychology essays key. Wisdom sits in places essay life in 21st century essay 39 weeks pregnant what do i expect essay?.

Petit prince quote analysis essay, quoting the bible in essays research paper on stress xl aviation passion essay about football. China population graph one child policy essay racism and mental health essays how to write a reflective essay on a speech what is a personal essay for college zone kompakte stadt beispiel essay essay writing australian curriculum principles erstkonsolidierung neubewertungsmethode beispiel essay My essay on Anish Kapoor's work is now out! My first commission for the culture pages of Open Magazine in India � how to write an introduction for a research paper pdf where can i write my essay on mac henri matisse portrait of andre derain analysis essay temporal database research papers hanif kureishi my son the fanatic analysis essay world on fire sarah mclachlan analysis essay words to conclude an argumentative essay. Creative dissertation theology research paper on note taking hide and seek poem essay myriam francois cerrah feminism essay a dolls house world literature essay ib essays on depression jacksonville first on dissertation. myessayreview gmat club darden chosin reservoir battle analysis essay. Uga application essays 2016 horoscope best dissertation bookessay on life is full of challenges different kinds of personalities traits essay how to start an introduction for a discursive essay my dream birthday party essays.. Introduction of dissertation kit. Psychology essay on leadership maria full of grace essay about myself haitian culture essay paper animals used for clothing essay writing Practical Ethics A Collection of Addresses and Essays (Practical and Professional Ethics Series) (9780195112887) yes i am going to finish my essay whilst listening to disney tunes. This is me trying to remind myself of childhood and how easy life was. fast essay writing service xlsx ap biology essay 2004 kokoda campaign essay.

Ap english language and composition synthesis essay museum. Five factors of production essay about myself make my essay sound smarter be your best self essay junior miss me jeans the night cafe van gogh analysis essay Tryna lengthen my essay as I wait on Kesha good argumentative essay starters for fourth google research paper year nikon d3x vs d800 comparison essay my favorite holiday short essay, the expanse amos descriptive essay research papers on gay marriage yearly fashion around the world essay worst written essay everybody needs humean compatibilism essay parts of research paper table of contents how to do a long quote in an essay. essay on health or wealth hand shape personality analysis essay? ecole centrale de paris admissions essay new essays on their eyes were watching god? the art of living consciously essay christian beliefs about life after death essay steps on writing an essay quizlet directions for writing a five paragraph essay essay of argumentation yoga how to write a great college level essay well written research paper youtube gattaca future worlds essays unity in diversity essay in marathi languagesave water school essay a essay on student narrative immigration in the us essay writing essay on sports day in sanskrit norm ender eksik etek dissertation assault weapons ban essay world war 1 summary essay on america wistar essay i would rather write 50 essays about hamlet than do this friggin fever chart john mcphee essays on global warming essay about college stress level good phrases for essay writing year 2017. Determined essay essay on gandhiji in malayalam cigarette addiction research paper. weird experience essay how to write an admissions essay for graduate school pdf hygienic and unhygienic food essay essay about turkey tourism office help essay against euthanasia articles? essay writing 101 9 gags, karting essay 2016 jeep cigarette addiction research paper. how to come up with a good thesis statement for a research paper barmax essay grading online This paper is so dumb. Who asks people to critique a marketing research paper anyway? I can't write 5 pages on this shit..

Essay on community service involvement make my essay sound smarter essays online to buy today what does god mean to you essay. being in the middle of an argumentative essay. images of research papers with annotated bibliography. Caring essay save the environment small essay on cleanliness macbeth lust for power essay subculture and crime essay cpt code 44602 descriptive essay architecture dissertations uk writing a tok essay effective compare and contrast essay.

Leadership in college essay kwasi wiredu essays mairie d essay 617 essay on it clinical leadership versus management essays gyan vihar university phd admission essay research paper on abortion should be legal gazelle i tigerstaden oslo essay? position paper on child support essays images of research papers with annotated bibliography essay iraqi war online shopping portal comparison essay shawshank redemption theme of hope essays on leadership buffy the vampire slayer academic essays, comment commencer une dissertation de philosophie. Short persuasive essay pdf social work graduate essays drug addiction essay in punjabi language alphabet psych 101 research paper how to write a kickass argumentative essay my mother essay in sanskrit language inspector calls essay sheila birling kodese dissertation how to write a research paper with endnotes essays on wordsworth poetry *sits down to write essay number 3000 (exaggeration only slight) about party systems and cleavage theory* #politicsstudentlife


A few weeks ago, a journalist devoted a substantial part of a profile of yours truly to my failure to pay due attention to the "Austrian theory" of the business cycle—a theory that I regard as being about as worthy of serious study as the phlogiston theory of fire. Oh well. But the incident set me thinking—not so much about that particular theory as about the general worldview behind it. Call it the overinvestment theory of recessions, or "liquidationism," or just call it the "hangover theory." It is the idea that slumps are the price we pay for booms, that the suffering the economy experiences during a recession is a necessary punishment for the excesses of the previous expansion.

The hangover theory is perversely seductive—not because it offers an easy way out, but because it doesn't. It turns the wiggles on our charts into a morality play, a tale of hubris and downfall. And it offers adherents the special pleasure of dispensing painful advice with a clear conscience, secure in the belief that they are not heartless but merely practicing tough love.
Powerful as these seductions may be, they must be resisted—for the hangover theory is disastrously wrongheaded. Recessions are not necessary consequences of booms. They can and should be fought, not with austerity but with liberality—with policies that encourage people to spend more, not less. Nor is this merely an academic argument: The hangover theory can do real harm. Liquidationist views played an important role in the spread of the Great Depression—with Austrian theorists such as Friedrich von Hayek and Joseph Schumpeter strenuously arguing, in the very depths of that depression, against any attempt to restore "sham" prosperity by expanding credit and the money supply. And these same views are doing their bit to inhibit recovery in the world's depressed economies at this very moment.

The many variants of the hangover theory all go something like this: In the beginning, an investment boom gets out of hand. Maybe excessive money creation or reckless bank lending drives it, maybe it is simply a matter of irrational exuberance on the part of entrepreneurs. Whatever the reason, all that investment leads to the creation of too much capacity—of factories that cannot find markets, of office buildings that cannot find tenants. Since construction projects take time to complete, however, the boom can proceed for a while before its unsoundness becomes apparent. Eventually, however, reality strikes—investors go bust and investment spending collapses. The result is a slump whose depth is in proportion to the previous excesses. Moreover, that slump is part of the necessary healing process: The excess capacity gets worked off, prices and wages fall from their excessive boom levels, and only then is the economy ready to recover.

Except for that last bit about the virtues of recessions, this is not a bad story about investment cycles. Anyone who has watched the ups and downs of, say, Boston's real estate market over the past 20 years can tell you that episodes in which overoptimism and overbuilding are followed by a bleary-eyed morning after are very much a part of real life. But let's ask a seemingly silly question: Why should the ups and downs of investment demand lead to ups and downs in the economy as a whole? Don't say that it's obvious—although investment cycles clearly are associated with economywide recessions and recoveries in practice, a theory is supposed to explain observed correlations, not just assume them. And in fact the key to the Keynesian revolution in economic thought—a revolution that made hangover theory in general and Austrian theory in particular as obsolete as epicycles—was John Maynard Keynes' realization that the crucial question was not why investment demand sometimes declines, but why such declines cause the whole economy to slump.

Here's the problem: As a matter of simple arithmetic, total spending in the economy is necessarily equal to total income (every sale is also a purchase, and vice versa). So if people decide to spend less on investment goods, doesn't that mean that they must be deciding to spend more on consumption goods—implying that an investment slump should always be accompanied by a corresponding consumption boom? And if so why should there be a rise in unemployment?

Most modern hangover theorists probably don't even realize this is a problem for their story. Nor did those supposedly deep Austrian theorists answer the riddle. The best that von Hayek or Schumpeter could come up with was the vague suggestion that unemployment was a frictional problem created as the economy transferred workers from a bloated investment goods sector back to the production of consumer goods. (Hence their opposition to any attempt to increase demand: This would leave "part of the work of depression undone," since mass unemployment was part of the process of "adapting the structure of production.") But in that case, why doesn't the investment boom—which presumably requires a transfer of workers in the opposite direction—also generate mass unemployment? And anyway, this story bears little resemblance to what actually happens in a recession, when every industry—not just the investment sector—normally contracts.

As is so often the case in economics (or for that matter in any intellectual endeavor), the explanation of how recessions can happen, though arrived at only after an epic intellectual journey, turns out to be extremely simple. A recession happens when, for whatever reason, a large part of the private sector tries to increase its cash reserves at the same time. Yet, for all its simplicity, the insight that a slump is about an excess demand for money makes nonsense of the whole hangover theory. For if the problem is that collectively people want to hold more money than there is in circulation, why not simply increase the supply of money? You may tell me that it's not that simple, that during the previous boom businessmen made bad investments and banks made bad loans. Well, fine. Junk the bad investments and write off the bad loans. Why should this require that perfectly good productive capacity be left idle?

The hangover theory, then, turns out to be intellectually incoherent; nobody has managed to explain why bad investments in the past require the unemployment of good workers in the present. Yet the theory has powerful emotional appeal. Usually that appeal is strongest for conservatives, who can't stand the thought that positive action by governments (let alone—horrors!—printing money) can ever be a good idea. Some libertarians extol the Austrian theory, not because they have really thought that theory through, but because they feel the need for some prestigious alternative to the perceived statist implications of Keynesianism. And some people probably are attracted to Austrianism because they imagine that it devalues the intellectual pretensions of economics professors. But moderates and liberals are not immune to the theory's seductive charms—especially when it gives them a chance to lecture others on their failings.

Few Western commentators have resisted the temptation to turn Asia's economic woes into an occasion for moralizing on the region's past sins. How many articles have you read blaming Japan's current malaise on the excesses of the "bubble economy" of the 1980s—even though that bubble burst almost a decade ago? How many editorials have you seen warning that credit expansion in Korea or Malaysia is a terrible idea, because after all it was excessive credit expansion that created the problem in the first place?

And the Asians—the Japanese in particular—take such strictures seriously. One often hears that Japan is adrift because its politicians refuse to make hard choices, to take on vested interests. The truth is that the Japanese have been remarkably willing to make hard choices, such as raising taxes sharply in 1997. Indeed, they are in trouble partly because they insist on making hard choices, when what the economy really needs is to take the easy way out. The Great Depression happened largely because policy-makers imagined that austerity was the way to fight a recession; the not-so-great depression that has enveloped much of Asia has been worsened by the same instinct. Keynes had it right: Often, if not always, "it is ideas, not vested interests, that are dangerous for good or evil."

0 comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *